I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030
30 March 1993 (VISION-21 Symposium, NASA Lewis Research Center and Ohio Aerospace Institute; Whole Earth Review). Vernor Vinge, mathematician at San Diego State University and science fiction author, gave this timing for the arrival of greater-than-human intelligence in his VISION-21 Symposium paper
The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era
More from Vernor Vinge · AI and hype · AI and science · Before ChatGPT
Who else?
What it refers to: The creation by technology of greater than human intelligence, which the paper calls the Singularity and expects during the next thirty years.
Other voices
- “The last invention that man need ever make” I. J. Good,
- “Computers suitable for humanlike robots will appear in the 2020s” Hans Moravec,
- “A future shock to end future shocks” Robin Hanson,
- “We are not going to get to human-level AI by just scaling up LLMs” Yann LeCun, Researcher,
- “The general purpose robot, then, is a mirage” James Lighthill,










